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《经济学人》精读45:All must have degrees

2019-09-21 14:38栏目:航空航天
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看来管教育学人4月3日一篇关于大学学位价值的文章,颇有感动,特意翻译出来。作者读大学时,扩招已经起来,读大学成了随大溜,考不上海大学学,对于大多数家家和孩子的话,都以不曾面子依旧天塌了的盛事。至于自个儿喜好怎么样,适合从事什么专门的学问,要挑选怎么着正儿八经,作者想许两人和自家那会儿同样,懵懵懂懂未有想过。

高校真的符合全数人吗?

Going to university is more important than ever for young people

正文原载于 《The Economist》 

译者:邓小雪 & 高浦铭 & 沈园园 

校对:伍豪

上海高校学对此青年来讲至关心爱护要,但经济回报在减小。

But the financial returns are falling

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Going to university is more important than ever for young people. But the financial returns are falling.

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正文选自 The Economist | 取经号原创翻译


Feb 3rd 2018 | SEOUL

关爱 微教徒人号:取经号,回复关键词“外刊”

公州的一间教室,一批年轻人正在伏案学习,四下寂静,他们阅读着过去的试卷,一大摞各种各样的教材放在手边。高校上学时光从晚上八点到中午四点半,但有一些学生要学到早上10点才回家。和广大的新加坡人同样,他们正在计划高等高校统招考试,那项多选检查实验将在比一点都不小程度上调整他们是不是能上好大学,乃至是不是能上海高校学。

IN A classroom in Seoul a throng of teenagers sit hunched over their desks. In total silence, they flick through a past exam paper. Stacks of brightly coloured textbooks are close to hand. Study begins at 8 am and ends at 4.30pm, but some will not go home until 10pm. Like hundreds of thousands of South Koreans, they are preparing for the suneung, the multiple-choice test that will largely determine whether they go to a good university or a bad one, or to university at all.

获得《工学人》等原版外刊获得方式

IN A classroom in Seoul a throng of teenagers sit hunched over their desks. In total silence, they flick through a past exam paper. Stacks of brightly coloured textbooks are close to hand. Study begins at 8am and ends at 4.30pm, but some will not go home until 10pm. Like hundreds of thousands of South Koreans, they are preparing for the suneung, the multiple-choice test that will largely determine whether they go to a good university or a bad one, or to university at all.

Over the course of a single generation in South Korea, degrees have become close to ubiquitous. Seventy percent of pupils who graduate from the country’s secondary schools now go straight to university,and a similar share of 25- to 34-year-olds hold degrees, up from 37% in 2000.Students scramble to gain admittance to the most prestigious institutions, with exam preparation starting ever younger. Sought-after private nurseries in Seoul have long waiting lists.

IN A classroom in Seoul a throng of teenagers sit hunched over their desks. In total silence, they flick through a past exam paper. Stacks of brightly coloured textbooks are close to hand. Study begins at 8am and ends at 4.30pm, but some will not go home until 10pm. Like hundreds of thousands of South Koreans, they are preparing for the suneung, the multiple-choice test that will largely determine whether they go to a good university or a bad one, or to university at all.

今世人之内,教育水平在高丽国就变得无处不在,百分之八十的中学结束学业生直接升入大学,25-三十四周岁时期有百分之八十的人持有学位,这一比例两千年时依然37%。为了考入名牌大学,学生们最初企图考试的年纪更小。公州的看好公立幼园都排着长队。

prestige: the respect and admiration that someone or something gets for being successful or important

在大田的一间教室里,一批年轻人窝在课桌前,在一片沉默中阅读着一张发下来的试卷,手边还堆着一摞用彩笔标出重视的读本。学习时间是从早晨8点到中午4点半,但稍事人直到上午10点才回家。和相当多印尼人一律,他们在备选suneung,即南朝鲜高等高校统招考试——这几个选项题为主的试验将非常的大程度上主宰他们能或不可能上大学,以及是还是不是上个好大学。

Over the course of a single generation in South Korea, degrees have become close to ubiquitous. Seventy per cent of pupils who graduate from the country’s secondary schools now go straight to university, and a similar share of 25- to 34-year-olds hold degrees, up from 37% in 2000. Students scramble to gain admittance to the most prestigious institutions, with exam preparation starting ever younger. Soughtafter private nurseries in Seoul have long waiting lists.

prestigious university or prestigious institutions

Suneung 高校修学工夫考试。大学修学技能考试,又叫南朝鲜高考或南朝鲜高等学校统招考试,是大韩民国时代年年一度的学业水平测量试验,题型大多为合理题。一九九四年正规公开化,考试在历年3月第二或第多个礼拜五实行。

南朝鲜是个极端的事例。但在其他国家,有学位的小兄弟比例相同小幅增进。经济合营和发展组织叁15个成员国中,25-三十三周岁人群43%存有学位,美利坚同联盟则是60%。

Over the course of a single generation in South Korea, degrees have become close to ubiquitous. Seventy per cent of pupils who graduate from the country’s secondary schools now go straight to university, and a similar share of 25- to 34-year-olds hold degrees, up from 37% in 2000. Students scramble to gain admittance to the most prestigious institutions, with exam preparation starting ever younger. Sought-after private nurseries in Seoul have long waiting lists.

South Korea is an extreme case. But other countries, too, have seen a big rise in the share of young people with degrees. In the OECD club of 35 countries, 43% of 25- to 34-year-olds now have degrees. In America the figure is 48%.

South Korea is an extreme case. But other countries, too, have seen a big rise in the share of young people with degrees.In the OECD club of 35 countries, 43% of 25- to 34-year-olds now have degrees.In America the figure is 48%.

单纯过了今世人,教育水平的显要就曾经造成新加坡人的共识。近来十分之九的中学毕业生直接进去大学。3000年时,25-叁拾二周岁年纪段中兼有本科学和教育育水平的人只占37%,而现行反革命占比也已临近十分八。学生们为了步向最出名的这个学院挤破脑袋,开始策画考试的小时也愈发早。公州人排着长队希望能把男女送入受迎接的幼园。

1994年至二〇一六年间,经济同盟和发展组织成员国政党在高教上的投入从GDP的0.9%进步到1.1%,个人投入也从1.2%进步到1.5%。随着当局的学习话费补贴注入教育机构,教育资金随之增添。一九八七年的话,美利哥从未有过奖学金或助学金的学习者,学习话费拉长比全部通胀增进快两倍。

Between 1995 and 2014 government spending on higher education in the OECD rose from 0.9% of GDP to 1.1%, while private spending rose from 1.2% to 1.5%. As government subsidies for tuition fees flow through to institutions they have helped inflate costs. Since 1990 fees for American students who do not get scholarships or bursaries have risen twice as fast as overall inflation.

South Korea is an extreme case. But other countries, too, have seen a big rise in the share of young people with degrees. In the OECD club of 35 countries, 43% of 25- to 34-year-olds now have degrees. In America the figure is 48%.

Between 1995 and 2014 government spending on higher education in the OECD rose from 0.9% of GDP to 1.1%, while private spending rose from 1.2% to 1.5%. As government subsidies for tuition fees flow through to institutions they have helped inflate costs. Since 1990 fees for American students who do not get scholarships or bursaries have risen twice as fast as overall inflation.

Policymakers regard it as obvious that sending more young people to university will boost economic growth and social mobility. Both notions are intuitively appealing. Better-educated people should surely be more likely to come up with productivity-boosting innovations. As technological change makes new demands of workers, it seems plausible that more will need to be well-educated. And a degree is an obvious way for bright youngsters from poor families to prove their abilities.

南韩的例子比较极端。但在另外国家,年轻人持有本科学和教育育水平的比重也是有相当大进级。经济合营和发展组织三十九个成员国中,25-31虚岁年龄段中有43%具有本科学和教育育水平,而美利坚同联盟那玖拾捌分比则高达一半。

政策制订者道理当然是那样的的以为,让越来越多的小伙上海南大学学学能激起经济提升,推进社会流动。这种古板直观上很吸引人。受过卓越教育的人自然更有望出现升高生产力的更新成果,科技(science and technology)进步也对工作提议了新须要,更三人须求越来越好的教诲看起来是有说服力的,而赢得学位,是贫穷家庭出身的灵性孩子申明自个儿才干的一种生硬渠道。

wl8wl8com ,But comparisons between countries provide little evidence of these links. Richer countries have more graduates, but that could be because there is more money to spare, and less urgency to start earning. Rich economies grow more slowly, but that is probably because they have fewer easy ways to raise productivity, not because education depresses their growth.

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Policymakers regard it as obvious that sending more young people to university will boost economic growth and social mobility. Both notions are intuitively appealing. Better-educated people should surely be more likely to come up with productivity-boosting innovations. As technological change makes new demands of workers, it seems plausible that more will need to be well-educated. And a degree is an obvious way for bright youngsters from poor families to prove their abilities.

bursary: an amount of money that a student is given to help pay for college or university study, a scholarship or grant

Between 1995 and 2014 government spending on higher education in the OECD rose from 0.9% of GDP to 1.1%, while private spending rose from 1.2% to 1.5%. As government subsidies for tuition fees flow through to institutions they have helped inflate costs. Since 1990 fees for American students who do not get scholarships or bursaries have risen twice as fast as overall inflation.

但国家间的可比印证,这种涉及关系还贫乏有效凭证。富裕国家有越来越多大学毕业生,或然因为更有方便,也更不发急赢利。经济较好的地点发展更加的缓慢,也说不定因为在如此的地方,升高生产率的方便人民群众方法更加少,而非教育抑制了一石二鸟进步。

intuitive: having the ability to know or understand things without any proof or evidence

在1993至二〇一六年里面,经济同盟和发展组织成员国政坛在高教上的成本从0.9%升起至1.1%,相同的时间个人支出从1.2%上升至1.5%。政坛津贴的学习费用步入高校机构,也推升了教导基金。自1988年来讲,对于尚未拿走奖学金或助学金的美利坚同盟国学生,他们的学习费用比平均通货膨胀率扩大了两倍。

But comparisons between countries provide little evidence of these links. Richer countries have more graduates, but that could be because there is more money to spare, and less urgency to start earning. Rich economies grow more slowly, but that is probably because they have fewer easy ways to raise productivity, not because education depresses their growth.

bursary noun /ˈbɜːsəri/an amount of money that is given to somebody so that they can study, usually at a college or university 助学金(在United Kingdom,bursary指的是助学金,一般出自发展中中原人民共和国家,或任何能拿出经济申明家庭意况不周口想者,都能够报名。而scholarship则是确实的奖学金,需求学术成就不错,加上笔者是有实行xx scholarship给予中华夏族民共和国学童的,本领报名。)


Policymakers regard it as obvious that sending more young people to university will boost economic growth and social mobility. Both notions are intuitively appealing. Better-educated people should surely be more likely to come up with productivity-boosting innovations. As technological change makes new demands of workers, it seems plausible that more will need to be well-educated. And a degree is an obvious way for bright youngsters from poor families to prove their abilities.

大学公众以为的真相

A truth universities acknowledged

主管以为,越多年轻人走入大学,就越有助于经济和社会流动性的增长。那多少个视角乍看之下很有道理。大家接受教育育越高,就越有希望做出立异添强生产成效。当手艺进级要求新的老工人时,大家的启蒙程度相似也应当跟着进步。对于贫苦家庭出身的小伙来讲,文凭是能力所能达到证实本身才能的一个直接表现。

A truth universities acknowledged

宗旨拟订者们有时引用的凭据是“博士溢价”,将要学习话费和学习时期放弃的进项考虑在内,大学完成学业生和只接受过中学及以下教育的人在平均收入上的差异。这种分化平日被描述为高教的“投资回报”,或是获得学位后毕生收入的年增长率。London联邦储备银行商讨显得,一九七五年至三千年间,United States高教的投资收益率小幅巩固,之后牢固在历年15%左右。换句话说,要是算成投资,学习话费和上学时期抛弃的收入要博得15%的年收益率,手艺与收获学位后专门的学问生涯中的平均收入拾壹分。

The main piece of evidence cited by policymakers is the “graduate premium”—the difference between the average earnings of someone with a degree and someone with no more than a secondary-school education, after accounting for fees and the income forgone while studying. This gap is often expressed as the “return on investment”in higher education, or the annualised boost to lifetime earnings from gaining a degree. Research by the New York Federal Reserve shows that the return on investment in higher education soared between 1980 and 2000 in America, before levelling off at around 15% a year.  In other words, an investment equal to the cost of tuition and earnings forgone while studying would have to earn 15% annual interest before it matched the average value over a working life of gaining a degree.

世界银行对1三十七个经济体的收益率实行了预计,就算各类地点各区别样,但数值都很惊人。法学家对数据深入分析开掘,收益率与有学位的人占比以及收入范围关于。United Kingdom、德意志联邦共和国和美利坚联邦合众国的报酬率周边,在撒哈拉以南北美洲地区报酬率在21%左右,那里硕士缺乏,教育水准低的工友收入非常少。在斯堪的纳维亚,收入绝对一致,百分之三十三的中年人有学位,报酬率在9%左右。

The World Bank has produced estimates of this return for 139 economies. It varies from place to place, but is substantial everywhere. The Economist’s analysis of the data finds that returns are linked to the share of people with degrees, and the range of earnings. Returns in Britain and Germany are similar to those in America.In sub-Saharan Africa, where degrees are scarce and the least-educated workers earn little, they are around 21% a year. In Scandinavia, where wages are less unequal and two-fifths of adults have degrees, they are around 9%.

而是,作为中学完成学业生思考继续上海高校学,以及政策制定者思量扩充高等教育覆盖面包车型大巴指南,“硕士溢价”存在破绽。就算在一国之内,平均值也覆盖了赫赫的差别。大多数学生都明白,数学或农学位十分的大概比音乐或社会行事更有利益可谋求。但非常少人发觉到,无论什么标准,对于战表勉强达到录取线的学习者来讲,“博士溢价”夸大了获得学位的经济回报。

But as a guide to school-leavers considering going to university—and to policymakers considering expanding access to higher education—the graduate premium is flawed. Even within countries the average conceals wide differences. Most students know that a degree in mathematics or finance is likely to be more lucrative than one in music or social work. What fewer realise is that the graduate premium overstates the financial benefit of embarking on a degree if their school grades barely qualify them for entry, no matter what they study.

正如有学位和未有学位人的受益情状,被大学录取但不许完成学业的人,固然也付出了学习成本,放任了上学时期的做事收入,其受益和尚未被大学录取的人比很多。那样的状态并相当多见。美利坚合众国十分六的大学生在两年内未能取得七年制学位。发达国家的平分辍学率在百分之三十三左右,那些以最低战表被圈定的人最有十分的大希望不能结束学业。

In a comparison of the earnings of people with degrees and people without them, those who start university but do not finish are lumped in with those who never started, even though they, too, will have paid fees and missed out on earnings. Their numbers are considerable. In America 40% of college students fail to graduate with four-year degrees within six years of enrolling. Drop-out rates across the developed world average around 30%. It is the students admitted with the lowest grades who are least likely to graduate.

测算上海大学学的报酬率时,将辍学者思索在内将拉动比较大影响。GeorgeMason大学的BryanCaplan在新书《反对教育的案例》中建议,基于边缘学生的低结束学业率,以及同样条件下聪明人赚的越多这一个谜底,美利坚联邦合众国七年制学位的收益率在1%到6.5%期间,越美貌的学生报酬率越高。

Including dropouts when calculating the returns to going to university makes a big difference. In a new book, “The Case Against Education”, Bryan Caplan of George Mason University argues that the low graduation rates of marginal students, and the fact that, for a given level of qualification, cleverer people tend to earn more, mean that the return on a four-year degree in America ranges from 6.5% for excellent students to just 1% for the weakest ones.

这种差异部分因为最差的学童上最差的高校,那样的高校辍学率也最高。若是能步入好的高档高校,报酬率大概会加强。马德里赫鲁高校学的SethZimmerman2016年登载的一项探究中,比较了亚拉巴马中学结束学业生的收入,他们的成绩临近一所好的州立大学的最低录取线。那么些刚刚在录取线以上的学生,比差那么一点到录取线的学员更恐怕到一所好大学攻读。他们的结业率与更常见的学习者群众体育相似。结业后他们的进项也大大超过那多少个刚刚未有达成录取线的人,对于他们,大学的投资报酬率特别惊人。

Part of that difference is because the weakest students attend the worst universities, where drop-out rates are highest. When they make it into better institutions, the returns may be higher. In a study published in 2014 Seth Zimmerman of the University of Chicago compared the earnings of school-leavers in Florida whose grades were close to the minimum for admission to a good state university. Those just above the cut-off were much more likely than those just below to start courses in good institutions. They graduated at a rate similar to that of the broader student population. They went on to earn considerably more than those just below the cut-off, and their return on investment was substantial.

宗旨制订者之所以夸大了扩展大学入学率的功利,高估“大学生溢价”而不是无出其右原因。总括高等教育社会回报的常用格局是,全数结业生的收入总和,减去公共补贴。不过学位某种程度上是一种“分配性商品”,它使一位得益的还要也就义了另一人的补益。部分溢价来自于找职业时相对外人的竞争优势,并非赢得了增进生产力的本领和学识。完整总括除了大学结束学业生的进项外,还应当包含非大学毕业生的损失。

注:依据维基百科,“positional good”are goods valued only by how they are distributed among the population, not by how many goods there are in total.“分配性商品”是指,商品的市场总值仅在于它们的分配格局而非商品总的数量。

Overstating the graduate premium is not the only reason policymakers overestimate the wider benefits of increasing the share of young people who go to university. The usual way to calculate the social returns of higher education is to sum up all the graduate premiums and subtract any public subsidies. But degrees are in part a way to access a “positional good” that benefits one person at the expense of another. Part of the premium comes from gaining an advantage over others in the competition for a good job, rather than the acquisition of productivity-boosting skills and knowledge. A complete calculation would include not just gains to graduates, but losses to non-graduates.

学位自个儿也是一种复信号,溢价包罗由个体特色带来的进项增高效应,这种性格更可能为具有学位者全部。那并不是因为她们在高档高校获得了这个特点,而是因为他俩具有那一个特点,所以能被高校录取。

Degrees are also signalling devices. The premium includes the income-boosting effects of personal characteristics that are more likely to be held by those with degrees, not because they acquired them at university, but because they possessed them on admission.

乘机学位日益推广,它当作一种时域信号的关键也越加彰显。招聘者并不保养求职者在高教上的投入,而是尤其帮忙于将学位作为基准,以便筛掉这几个最不积极或最不称职的人。斯坦福商院的Joseph Fuller和Manjari Raman前段时间的一项斟酌注脚,公司按常规要求求职者具有学位,就算那多少个已在这些地点专门的学业的人只有少部分全体学位。那扩展了大学结业生的溢价效应——不过是以惩罚非高校结业生的秘籍,并不是增高学位的相对收入。

As degrees have become more common,their importance as signalling devices is rising. Recruiters, who pay none of the cost of jobseekers’ higher education, are increasingly able to demand degrees in order to screen out the least motivated or competent. A recent study by Joseph Fuller and Manjari Raman of Harvard Business School found that companies routinely require applicants to have degrees, even though only a minority of those already working in the role have them. This increases the graduate premium—but by punishing non-graduates rather than boosting the absolute returns to degrees.

教育家对英国人口普遍检查数据深入分析开掘,1970年至2015年间,25至六十一周岁有先生及以上学位的劳重力占比在262个专门的学业中的268个都扩充了。当中一些差事是在个中变化不小的知识性工作,举个例子航空航天技术员或总结学家,其余干活则并不须要高校结束学业生,比方前台经理。这几天大致16%的推销员具有学位,大多数场馆下是因为她们没辙找到要求高校毕业生的劳作。但任何部分诸如采访者、护师、小教等过去只供给在工作中长期培养练习就会从事的职业,今后也多是大学结业生。今日,具有大学学位平时是主旨原则。

Analysis by The Economist of American census data finds that between 1970 and 2015 the share of workers aged 25-64 with at least a bachelor’s degree increased in 256 out of 265 occupations. Some of these are intellectually demanding jobs that changed a lot over that period, such as aerospace engineer or statistician. Others are non-graduate jobs such as waiting tables. Sixteen percent of waiters now have degrees—presumably, in most cases, because they could not find a graduate job. But other jobs that are mostly done by graduates, such as journalism, nursing and teaching in primary schools, used to require only shorter training, often received while working. Today, having a degree is usually an entry requirement.

地医学家给出了二个衡量过度教育的专门的学业,它定义了在一九六八年就重视由大学毕业生从事的差事。我们开采只有35%的高端高校毕业生前几日依然从事这样的专门的学问,45年前这么些比重是四分之二。通过职业名称来决断,2650万U.S.工笔者——在那之中2/3有所大学学位——从事着半个世纪前多由非高校毕业生从事的做事。

The Economist has produced a measureof over-education by defining a graduate job as one which was staffed mostly by degree-holders in 1970. We find that just 35% of graduates work in such occupations today, down from 51% 45 years ago. Judging by job titles alone, 26.5m workers in America—two-thirds of those with degrees—are doing work that was mostly done by nongraduates a half-century ago.

如此的乘除夸大了这种势头。科学技术的上进毋庸讳言使部分数之差事要求更加高了。但不是负有职业都以这么,至少从低收入来看是如此。我们发掘二个专门的职业中越来越高的大学完成学业生占比和越来越高的薪酬时期唯有微弱的涉及。相比半个世纪前,贰分之一左右的生意雇佣了更加高比例的高端高校毕业生,所以薪酬水平实际下落了。

That calculation exaggerates the trend. Advances in technology have doubtless made some of these jobs more demanding. But not all of them, at least judging by pay. We find only a weak link between higher shares of graduates in an occupation and higher salaries. For around half of the occupations that employ higher shares of graduates now than a half-century ago, real wages have fallen.

经济合作和发展组织教育商量为主经理AndreasSchleicher感到,“国家紧缺的是技巧,并非学位”。他说,高校操纵高教市集是四个标题,部分缘故是大学并不适用于具有的求学者,并且大学辍学者从曾经到位的科目中并未获得多少经济收入。

Andreas Schleicher, the head of education research at the OECD, reckons that “countries have skills shortages, not degree shortages”. The way universities have come to monopolise higher education, he says, is a problem in part because universities do not suit all kinds of learners. And university dropouts tend to see little in the way of financial benefit from the part of their course that they have finished.

一种有十分的大可能率的向上是“微证书”或“微学位”,即长时间职业培养磨炼,常用来Computer和IT领域。线上学习公司优达学城(Udacity)提供了众多那样的培育,包罗优步(Uber)和Benz承认的电动驾车汽车,还只怕有推特(Twitter)和Google料定的数字经营出卖。EdX,巴黎综合理工科、华盛顿圣路易斯分校州立大学和别的名牌学院协作开创的开放在线课堂平台也无偿提供类似课程。交上几百法郎,学生就能够参预考试证明他们掌握了该领域的文化。

One promising development is that of“micro-credentials” or “nano-degrees”—short vocational courses, often in computing and IT. Udacity, an online education company, offers a variety, including one in self-driving cars approved by Uber and Mercedes-Benz, and another on digital marketing approved by Facebook and Google. EdX, a collaboration between MIT, Harvard and other leading universities, offers similar courses free. Students can take exams to prove their mastery of the material for a few hundred dollars.


The main piece of evidence cited by policymakers is the “graduate premium”—the difference between the average earnings of someone with a degree and someone with no more than a secondary-school education, after accounting for fees and the income forgone while studying. This gap is often expressed as the “return on investment” in higher education, or the annualised boost to lifetime earnings from gaining a degree. Research by the New York Federal Reserve shows that the return on investment in higher education soared between 1980 and 2000 in America, before levelling off at around 15% a year. In other words, an investment equal to the cost of tuition and earnings forgone while studying would have to earn 15% annual interest before it matched the average value over a working life of gaining a degree.

But comparisons between countries provide little evidence of these links. Richer countries have more graduates, but that could be because there is more money to spare, and less urgency to start earning. Rich economies grow more slowly, but that is probably because they have fewer easy ways to raise productivity, not because education depresses their growth.

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